Over the last two years Asia Pacific has experienced some favourable office rental growth. In particular, Australian centres such as Melbourne, Adelaide and Sydney have outperformed the market. Shanghai has also experienced strong office rental growth over the past few years, which is set to continue into 2003 property valuation process Knight Frank Asia Pacific projections for 2003 are again divided into two categories: overall office market-strength performers and top projected office rental growth markets. The same twenty indicators have been used throughout.
Rental growth has been very strong over the past few years and this trend is expected to continue into 2003 with 5% rental growth projected. Vacancy is falling and currently sits at about 10%. Yields are holding steady, GDP indicators for 2003 anticipate another good year (3.8%), interest rates are stable and low (6.25%) and unemployment is a healthy 6.4%.
2003 is expected to be a year of change for many Asia Pacific nations, as some emerge from a recession for the first time in years and others struggle to come to grips with political instability. India and China remain nations with significant potential due to their size, internal economy and export ability.
International property investment in Africa is still limited and most countries rely on domestic and inter-African investment. This trend will continue for the next few years as monetary, fiscal and political policy is re-evaluated in a number of African nations.
The world is getting smarter and smarter and people are using latest skills provided by technology to get benefits and simplicity and also the most important fast work cost for house valuations when they in fact borrowed money to make the purchases. This being said, property indicators remain favourable in a number of centres. Office absorption has been encouraging in Johannesburg and Dar es Salaam
Vacancy in Kampala, Gaborone, Lusaka and Harare remains under 10%. Additionally, Harare, Johannesburg, Gaborone, and Dar es Salaam are expected to increase the proportion of GDP output delivered from office sectors by 2005. This will encourage further office development and employment in the industries, which will further encourage office related spin-off industries. The latter two have been demand driven, while Harare has been primarily inflationary driven. The current political situation in Zimbabwe gives Harare unique and complex characteristics which offer challenge and opportunity in equal measure.
The top six rental growth destinations in Africa for 2003 are anticipated to be Johannesburg, Gaborone, Lagos, Lusaka, Blantyre and Harare. The last five are expecting zero rental growth but steady office market conditions over 2003. We are projecting Johannesburg office rental growth to reach around 4% for 2003.
Kampala, Dar es Salaam and Nairobi are all expected to experience rental value decline in 2003. Nairobi’s economy has been in difficulty over the past few years. This is however, projected to turn around in 2003 with 2.8% GDP growth. Kenya as a democracy is evolving and should be monitored in terms of future office investment potential. The outcome and consequences of new elections will directly impact upon economic and fiscal stability.
Rental rates for warehouse- distribution space have eroded over the past two years, but the slide has been small. The average asking rent, since peaking early in 2001, has declined by 5.5 percent, ending the third quarter of 2002 at $4.72 per square foot triple net. R&D-flex rents, on the other hand, have taken a 15.4 percent haircut from their peak, only a shade better than office rents have performed. Rental rates in 2003 should be flat for warehouse-distribution space while R&D-flex rents may fall by another 5 percent.
